12 August 2020

Blackjack Strategy

Quite simply, basic strategy is the optimal way to play blackjack. It has been devised using statistical probabilities to calculate the best possible move in any particular circumstance according to your cards and the dealer’s starting card. The aim of basic strategy is obviously to win as often as possible but also to maximise your winnings (through double-down), to reduce the chances of busting, and also in some circumstances, to minimise your expected losses (through surrender or when choosing not to double). Of course, when playing any casino game, including blackjack under standard rules, the house will always have a slight edge but following basic strategy will significantly reduce this edge. It does not take into consideration any other cards which may have been seen in previous hands or other players’ cards which would have a slight significance on subsequent cards. This is the basis of card counting which will not be discussed here.

However, this is not a significant consideration for online blackjack as each round is played with a newly shuffled deck usually from a 6-deck pack. This means there is usually a 312 pack deck with 24 of each card, so unless you are considering the odds of one particular card which has appeared an incredibly large number of times already in that hand (e.g. 15 or more) then it is negligible.

If you look at the basic strategy guide here you will see general patterns about where to hit and stand. For example, always hit (sometimes double-down) when your hand is below 11 (obviously, as you cannot bust) and always stand on 17 and above (unless it’s a soft hand). The best way to learn basic strategy by heart is not to learn all the possible hands but rather focus on the borderline hands. For example, when the dealer has 7 the recommended strategy for the majority of player hands changes dramatically from when a 6 is shown.

If a player follows basic strategy and does not deviate from its path then the theoretical return to player (RTP) under standard rules is 99.63%. This a very high RTP and will usually be the highest within a given casino, both online and offline, so it is perhaps no wonder that blackjack is such a hugely popular game. However, although the RTP is high in blackjack, the variance is low as the highest payout possible in one hand is limited to 3:2 (blackjack). In comparison to slot games for example where players are sometimes able to win up to several thousand times their stake, blackjack players are unlikely to win a huge amount in one session.

Always split aces. Although the player will only receive one further card on both aces, 11 is such a strong starting number that even the limit of one further card stall makes it the best decision to make. Similarly, always split 8-8. For all other circumstances in which splitting is recommended, refer to the basic strategy chart.